By David Paulin
Rumors are flying in Venezuela that Hugo Chávez is on his death bed – fighting a
respiratory infection in
a Havana oncology ward that, according to official statements,
developed after his fourth cancer surgery. Now, Fidel Castro is fueling
rumors of a death watch with an open letter to Venezuelan Vice President
Nicolás Maduro.
It has the tone of a funeral eulogy.
Sent by Castro on New Year’s Day, the 350-word letter also was
published in Granma,
the official newspaper of the Cuban Communist Party’s Central
Committee. Castro, a mentor to Chávez over the years, recalls his first
meeting with Venezuela’s strongman in Havana in 1994; this was not long
after Chávez, then a cashiered Army paratrooper, was released from
prison for leading an aborted military coup in 1992. Castro details his
revolutionary struggles with Chávez and – most tellingly – observes that
“however painful (Chávez’s) absence, all of you will be capable of
continuing his work.” Cuba has been a recipient of Venezuela’s oil and
economic largesse; it has many agents in Venezuela helping Chávez’s
security services.
The impetus for the letter, as Castro explained at the onset, was to
mark the eighth anniversary for the Bolivarian Alliance for the
Americas, currently an eight-member political and economic group that
includes countries from Latin America and the Caribbean. An alternative
to the Free Trade Area of the Americas, it was put forth by Chávez to
counter U.S. dominance in the region.
Recalling the first time he met Chávez, Castro wrote:
I met Hugo Chávez exactly 18 years ago. Someone invited
him to Cuba and he accepted the invitation. He told me that he was
thinking of asking for an interview with me. I was far from imagining
that those soldiers branded as coup plotters by the news agencies, who
sowed their ideas with so much discretion for years, were a select group
of Bolivarian revolutionaries. I waited for Chávez at the airport, took
him to where he was staying and talked with him for hours, exchanging
ideas.
The following day, in the University of Havana’s Aula Magna, each one of us expressed our ideas.
(Readers can see Chávez’s speech,
here.
Although it’s in Spanish, two things surmount language barriers:
Chávez’s telegenic presence and his aura of being a True Believer.)
Regarding Cuba’s close ties with Venezuela, Castro also mentioned Venezuela’s
mudslide disaster
in 1999 — and how Cuban physicians and medical aid were sent in
response. “Our medical cooperation with Venezuela began as a result of
the Vargas tragedy in which thousands of people died as a consequence of
the abandonment and lack of foresight experienced by the poorest
population of this state.”
It’s a fanciful narrative, to be sure, about what happened along the
coastline of Vargas State, 20 miles north of Caracas. It ignores the
truth: Chávez’s inept leadership and do-or-die political ambitions
facilitated the deaths of 30,000 or more Venezuelans in the mudslide
disaster. Most of the victims were poor.
Although not widely reported outside of Venezuela, Chávez and his
advisers ignored the unusually heavy rains (and possibility of deadly
mudslides and flooding), because they were determined to go ahead with a
national referendum, on December 15, that was needed to adopt a new
constitution. The constitution was a pivotal step in consolidating
Chávez’s power – and enabled him to pack the Supreme Court with
political cronies.
Despite the menacing rains, Chávez urged Venezuelans to go to the
polls. No matter that emergencies were being declared and evacuations
undertaken in neighboring states, including by Miranda state Gov.
Enrique Mendoza – a Chávez opponent – who had a reputation for good
governance.
Writing at the excellent blog Venezuela News and Views, Jorge Arena provides a
cogent time line of what in fact happened, explaining:
On December 15,
1999 the referendum process started despite the heavy rains. Venezuelan
President Hugo Chávez appeared on TV and asked the Venezuelan people to
go massively to vote and to vote early. He said that nobody should be
prevented to go to vote because of the rains. He reminded Venezuelans of
the old sentence by Simon Bolivar “If Nature is against us; we will
fight against her and make her obey.” Many centers could not open and
many table witnesses could not be present because of the rain situation.
Problems were reported in several states. Members of the church with
the CNE directory prayed to God for the climate to improve. Evacuations
started in the state of Falcon.
On December 16,
1999 the country realized the magnitude of the disaster. Vargas state
was completely cut from the rest of the country. Some Constitutional
Assembly members celebrated the referendum win but others, like
(Aristóbulo) Isturiz, asked for restraint.
Explaining how Chávez put the Vargas disaster to good use, Arena added:
On December 24,
1999 the judges of the new Supreme Court, baptized “Tribunal Supremo de
Justicia” (TSJ) were swore in. They were hand-picked by the so-called
“Congresillo”, a subset of the Constitutional Assembly that had taken
the role of the dissolved Congress. In the turmoil that followed the
disaster, very few eyes were paying attention to this very important
nomination. The smooth transition that was supposed to take place from
the old to the new Constitutional rule did not take place given the
state of emergency.
So, by the end of December 1999,
Venezuela had a brand new Constitution and a brand new Supreme Court.
Chávez had won the first round for the absolute control of the country.
There were however tens of thousands deaths, a major economic disaster
and entire areas of the country to be rebuilt. If the government had
declared the State of emergency sooner, stopped the referendum and
evacuated as quick as possible the affected areas thousands of lives
could have been saved. They did not do it because they put their
political agenda before the well being of the Venezuelan people.
To me, that is criminal negligence. History will be the judge.
Interestingly, it was during the Vargas disaster that Chávez
established his anti-American credentials – turning away U.S. Navy ships
that were steaming to Venezuela with military engineers, physicians,
and equipment — part of the international aid effort. They’d been
invited by a senior military official in Chávez’s government. Ten years
later, residents of Vargas still
complained bitterly about Venezuela’s inadequate response to the natural disaster. Vargas remained a mess.
Although Chávez turned away the U.S. Navy ships, the U.S.
nevertheless played a significant role in helping Venezuela – as
Venezuelans clearly saw when U.S. Army Blackhawk helicopters were
carrying out rescue flights. Yet Chávez’s officials attempted to
minimize the U.S. aid as was noted in a Washington Times
article that I wrote as a Caracas-based correspondent.
How long will Chávez live? Venezuela’s government has treated his
cancer as a state secret, releasing few details. But the little
information that has been released suggests to some cancer specialists
that Chávez (in light of four surgeries to the pelvic area, radiation
treatment, and chemotherapy) is suffering from a sarcoma. “Patients who
suffer from sarcoma tumors that are aggressive and incurable usually
live between one to three years. If Mr. Chávez suffered from advanced
sarcoma when he was diagnosed, he would be in the middle of that range
right now,” the Wall Street Journal recently pointed out in an
article, “Outlook for Chávez darkens, doctors say.”
And in an observation that may surprise Michael Moore, that same
article indicated that Chávez’s insistence on being treated in Cuba was a
fatal mistake: Havana’s cancer center, after all, “isn’t considered
among the elite anticancer or sarcoma centers, a handful of which are
located in the U.S. and Europe, doctors say.”
Vice president Nicolás Maduro, a Chávez yes man, was a bus
driver-turned union leader before getting into leftist politics. He
lacks Chávez’s charisma and connection to Venezuela’s poor majority. Yet
some political observers regard him as more pragmatic and flexible than
Chávez – perhaps less likely, in other words, to put leftist ideology
and anti-American hatred above the welfare of Venezuela’s people who,
thanks to Chávez, are enduring record levels of crime, corruption, and
food shortages.
If Chávez dies or steps down, presidential elections will be held in
30 days. Even if an opposition candidate wins, Venezuela will not
recover anytime soon from 14 years of Hugo Chávez.
Originally published at
FrontPage Magazine.